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Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that his involvement in the first Ashes Test appears unlikely due to ongoing fitness concerns.

Media speculation from Australia had indicated that Cummins might miss the whole series, though the pace bowler himself has now given a more detailed update on his situation.

Injury Timeline

The veteran cricketer has been battling with a back stress injury that has prevented his participation since his last competitive match in July.

Although Cummins has resumed running training, he has yet to begin bowling as part of his rehabilitation program.

"I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but my assessment is probably less likely than likely," commented Cummins. "We get into begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from wearing the spikes and delivering on turf."

Fitness Requirements

Australia coach Andrew McDonald had earlier suggested that Cummins would need a bare minimum of four weeks of bowling preparation to have any chance of playing in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, explaining: "It's necessary to have at least approximately a month in the nets. If you participate in a Test match, you want to ensure you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without worry."

Team Consequences

Given the compressed timeframe, there are also doubts about Cummins' availability for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unavailable, former captain Steve Smith is expected to lead the side, with Scott Boland potentially filling the gap in the pace department.

Australia have retained the Ashes urn since 2018, while The visitors are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current injury concerns mirror challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test first appearance as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the youngest-ever player to take a five-for in an innings at that time.

However, his explosive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins experienced six years before his next match due to repeated stress fractures in his spine.

Career Achievements

When healthy, Cummins has established himself as one of cricket's premier fast bowlers. The experienced campaigner has taken 309 Test dismissals at an remarkable average of 22.10.

His record in Australia is even more formidable, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has claimed 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the latest Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and confirming his importance to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's victorious World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final win against India.

He remains the only captain in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Squad Situation

England also face their own fitness worries with captain Ben Stokes, who has been affected by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the highly anticipated Ashes series approaches.